More than 1,300 people living on the slopes of Indonesia’s Mount Merapi were killed when the volcano erupted in 1930. As one of Indonesia’s youngest and most active volcanoes, the aptly named “Mountain of Fire” keeps nearby villagers, government officials, and volcanologists on alert. Seventy-eight years after one of the deadliest eruptions, scientists can predict Mount Merapi’s activity and plan life-saving disaster response.

More than 1,300 people living on the slopes of Indonesia’s Mount Merapi were killed when the volcano erupted in 1930. As one of Indonesia’s youngest and most active volcanoes, the aptly named “Mountain of Fire” keeps nearby villagers, government officials, and volcanologists on alert. Seventy-eight years after one of the deadliest eruptions, scientists can predict Mount Merapi’s activity and plan life-saving disaster response.

In 2006, when Mount Merapi began to rumble,  pouring out lava and spewing hot volcanic ash and smoke, authorities ordered mass evacuation. They established an escape route and set up shelters away from predicted lava flow and noxious gases. Although the eventual 2006 eruption was considered mild—the 2.5-mile cloud of hot ash and gas never reached populated areas—volcanologists warned the volcano could collapse at any time. With this in mind, researchers at the Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) work to curtail the death, destruction, and displacement in the wake of an eruption.


“Our priority is to save lives,” said Dali Ahmad, a volcanologist at CVGHM. “Knowing the location of the shelters beforehand helps us prepare support for the evacuation process such as improving the infrastructures in the area in terms of roads and buildings, as well as establishing other supporting facilities such as health clinics.  We can also decide on the shortest evacuation routes to ensure an effective evacuation process.”


With 129 active volcanoes in Indonesia, disaster planning is a hefty task and one made simpler with the use of comprehensive mapping and database technology. The CVGHM uses geographic information system (GIS) software from ESRI to research, analyze, and forecast areas prone to volcanic hazards. GIS ties all data to a geographic location for mapping, planning, and analysis. 
   

“The ability to illustrate highly technical information or scientific concepts to public officials in a timely, effective manner really helps to avert disasters,” said Julie Griswold, a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP).    

“ArcGIS Desktop extension tools provide us with viewshed analysis, grid algebra, and slope functions that are simple but critical for working in remote areas where access might be almost impossible.”
   

The VDAP is a mobile volcano-response team that assists in volcano crises worldwide, including the Mount Merapi eruption. The USGS and U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance developed VDAP following the eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia that claimed more than 23,000 lives in 1985. 
   

Nearly 20 years later, an experienced team of USGS and local scientists can rapidly respond to developing volcanic crises with a state-of-the-art portable cache of monitoring equipment. When the USGS arrives on the scene of a volcano threat, they work closely with local scientists to plan the best ways to improve the volcano-monitoring networks, install instruments, interpret monitoring data, and assess volcano hazards.
   

In volcano-prone territory such as Indonesia, scientists are able to use satellite images and continuous monitoring to detect changes in volcanic activity. In preparation for an eruption, scientists use GIS to determine areas that will be clear of lava and mud flow to establish evacuation shelters in safe locations.
   

Within the GIS, CVGHM can query geological data, perform analysis, and store the results in a database that is accessible to other institutions and local government. Ahmad and his team can view 3-D seismic epicenters beneath the edifice of a volcano in order to monitor changes in earthquake magnitudes and hypocenters for an indication of ascending magma or the extrusion of lava at the surface. Population centers or critical infrastructure can be layered in the GIS relative to the position of volcanoes to plan evacuations. Hazard zones modeled with GIS programs and topographic data, predict areas of potential inundation by a lahar (a muddy landslide of volcanic debris and water).
   

“We use ESRI’s ArcMap and ArcGRID GIS tools to design maps of predicted disaster areas and we make the maps available as a reference for the policy makers, especially at local government level, to assist them in urban planning activities,” Ahmad said. “This way, the local government can do better planning in developing the areas. They can reduce or eliminate development in areas that are prone to disasters, and concentrate on the development of safe areas.”


Lesson Learned


VDAP’s quick response to the catastrophic eruptions of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 ranks as its most notable success. A quick examination of the geologic record at Mount Pinatubo indicated the volcano’s recent history of producing large explosive eruptions. The assessment helped to identify hazardous areas around the volcano before its cataclysmic eruption on June 15.

VDAP and Philippine scientists noted developing unrest early enough to establish a monitoring network and complete a hazard assessment. They were able to provide accurate eruption forecasts for Philippine Government officials and US military leaders. Evacuations and other civil-defense actions saved thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars of US military aircraft and hardware.
   

Since the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, VDAP has responded to many volcanoes in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific. Evolving volcano-monitoring techniques developed by USGS scientists and the experience gained by VDAP scientists responding to volcano crises overseas helps scientists protect people and property from future eruptions.

Jessica Wyland is a writer at ESRI; e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

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