I wrote a feature for GeoWorld on pandemic preparedness a few years ago, and it’s all coming back to me now as news comes in regarding the swine flu outbreak in Mexico City. I’m certain that researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory are currently running their simulation model to help map the flu outbreak. States, such as Ohio, are firing up their syndromic surveillance systems to try and get an idea on the spread of the disease, and the measures that will be necessary to curtail the spread. And emergency response teams are hard at work assessing resources and plotting their response.
One sobering take away from that feature is that according to the simulation model by LANL, the spread of the infection will be quick, with a nationwide peak within 90 days, unless aggressive mitigation measures are deployed. Our medical response to such a new flu strain will be rather slow, because it takes a good nine months to create a new vaccine, and the spread of a new strain will likely be much faster than that.
I’m impressed by Mexico’s aggressive reaction to the flu outbreak, and am hoping that these measures curtail the spread. As of this post, Canada has noted cases and there are cases in five U.S. states (California, Texas, New York, Ohio and Kansas). The reports indicate that the symptoms spreading outside of Mexico so far are less severe than those that have killed as many as 80 young and healthy adults in Mexico City so far.
