A paper in the journal Nature explores complex dynamic systems, and the tipping points that can cause sudden shifts with dramatic detrimental effect. The paper suggests that with proper monitoring and early warning, we can keep such systems as ecosystems, climate and financial markets away from these critical thresholds. The researchers suggest that patterns typically emerge as systems near their tipping points, and their research found that many different systems reacted the same way and seem to obey the same laws as they get close to their tipping point. The key to action then is adequate monitoring to understand when these tipping points are near.
While this research provides a positive picture for understanding signals from deteriorating systems, it also points to the need for better monitoring and more data. The worldwide financial deterioration is seen as a detrimental factor for understanding climate change, and the deterioration of Earth observation satellites means that there is a lack of data in order to find patterns and respond quickly.
The full paper titled, Early-warning Signals for Critical Transitions, can be found online here. There’s also a good overview on this research in USA Today.
