The U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey released a report today warning of the potential damages of a hypothetical 7.8 magnitude earthquake along the San Andreas fault. Estimates are for 1,800 deaths, injuries to 50,000 people, $200 billion in damage and long-lasting economic and social repercussions similar to what has happened in New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina. Such a quake will happen at some point, and the exercise is an effort to raise awareness and preparedness.
The ShaekOut Scenario report provides a scientific framework for a large-scale earthquake preparedness drill that is scheduled for November 13, 2008. The exercise is dubbed the “Golden Guardian ’08,” and will test preparedness among various agencies. There are many startling details and scenarios from the report, including:
- At least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking.
- All un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many occupants.
- The fault severs all lifelines crossing into Southern California, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, telecommunications and aqueducts.
- Nearly two thirds of the hospital beds are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms.
- Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires.
There are some interesting animations of the scenario here.
