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Myanmar: Forecasting Worked, Mitigation — Response Failed Again
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) supplied the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar with information about cyclone Nargis as early as April 27. The WMO reported that "The New Delhi Office of the India Meteorological Department started to issue RSMC advisories at 00 UTC every 3 hours on 27 April, which continued until 06 UTC on 3 May. The last advisory said “the status of Nargis is a Severe Cyclonic Storm (50 knots) about 90 km south-west of Yangon”. The first forecast of landfall was issued at 06UTC on 1 May (36 hours in advance of landfall), which said that “Nargis will cross the Myanmar coast between 16 to 18 degrees north by the night of 2 May”. At 21 UTC of 1 May, it was forecast that “the maximum wind speed at landfall is expected to be 90 knots”. At 09 UTC on 2 May, the forecast was that “Nargis will cross near 16 degree North by 12 UTC with 90 knots wind speed”.
The question that needs to be addressed is, "if all of our spatial information systems are capable of forecasting, and for all intents and purposes are quite accurate, why is there still so much death and destruction?" Does this bode well for any other place on the planet in the future?
The WMO says,
"Effective early warning systems involve: (i) observing, monitoring and forecasting the hazards; (ii) development of authoritative and understandable warning messages that include hazard and risk information; (iii) timely dissemination of warnings to authorities and those at risk; and (iv) emergency preparedness and response measures at community level based on warning information. These capacities must be supported by clear national and local emergency plans and legislation which clearly lay out the roles and responsibilities of the different agencies in the operational warning system. "
Clearly I-III were happening. Much more work needs to be done on IV. Other communities should take note.
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Discussion
5 comments for “Myanmar: Forecasting Worked, Mitigation — Response Failed Again”
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This reminds me a bit of what happened in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. Steps 1 — 3 happened, but everyone stumbled on step 4. I’m still not sure if it was complete incompetance, a lack of political will, or some combonation there of, but when there’s that much information available and nothing happens, people suffer needlessly. Hopefully the international community can figure this out.
Probable burocracy is decision making and limited budget for Disaster risk preparedness.
Could be long chin of burocracy in decision making and probaly limited budget for disaster irsk preparedness.
long chain of Burocracy in decision making and probably limited budget/funding for disaster risk preparednes.
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